|
GOVERNMENT DEBT SOARS
As government debt ①soars，you have to pinch yourself to remember that only 10 years ago investors worried that western government bond markets were shrinking so fast that they might disappear. There was even talk that triple ②AAA rated corporate bonds would eventually replace Treasuries as global debt benchmarks. Indeed，in 2000 net global issuance of government debt was a mere $250bn. This year alone the UK will issue a third more than that;Eurozone governments almost six times as much.
It has been an open question how long this can continue before investors go on strike，rising indebtedness saps economic growth，and inflation takes off. But now，③from the ④economists who wrote the book on the impact of financial crises on public finances， comes a suggested answer-and a warning.
After examining the record of 44 countries for more than 200 years，Kenneth Rogoff，former International Monetary Fund chief economist，and Carmen Reinhart，a colleague，found little link between rising public debt and higher inflation in developed countries. That should ⑤soothe the inflation anxiety of some investors. They also found little relationship between debt and economic growth-so long as gross public debt stayed under 90 per cent of gross domestic product. That gets the US and the UK，with debt to GDP ratios of 84 per cent and 72 respectively，⑥off the hook for now.
But when debt rises above that level，average growth drops by as much as 2 percentage points. Moreover，such high levels of debt were usually only reached during big wars. This debt build-up，by contrast，is in a time of relative peace.Use the latest IMF projections and Washington has only a year before it breaches the 90 per cent danger mark and needs to reholster its cheque book; London at best two.
譯文梗概
美英政府債務逼近“警戒水平”
隨著政府債務激增，你得掐一下自己才會記起：就在10年前，投資者還擔心西方政府債券市場萎縮得太快，有可能會蕩然無存。美國曾考慮是否應取消30年期國債。甚至曾有傳言稱，AAA級公司債最終將取代美國國債成為全球債務基準。事實上，2000年全球政府債務凈發行額只有2500億美元。僅在今年，英國的發行額就將比這多出1/3；歐元區政府的發行額幾乎是它的6倍。
在投資者抵制債市、高漲的債務負擔拖累經濟增長及通脹走高之前，上述局面能維持多久？這個問題始終沒有得到解答。不過，著書闡述金融危機對公共財政影響的經濟學家，如今提出了一個暗示性的答案和一項警告。
考查了44個國家200年間的記錄后，國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)前首席經濟學家肯尼思·羅格夫(Kenneth Rogoff)和同事卡門·萊因哈特(Carmen Reinhart)發現，在發達國家，政府債務增加與通脹上升之間幾乎沒有聯系。一些投資者對通脹的憂慮應該會因此得到緩解。二人還發現，只要政府債務總額與國內生產總值(GDP)的比例保持在90%以下，債務與經濟增長之間沒有什么關系。這使美國與英國暫時脫離了險境——兩國債務與GDP的比例分別為84%和72%。
然而，當債務負擔超過上述水平時，平均經濟增幅就會下降最多兩個百分點。此外，如此高的債務水平過去通常只出現在大戰時期。相反，當前的債務增長卻出現在相對和平的時期。根據IMF的最新預測，只要再過一年，華盛頓的債務比例就會突破90%的“警戒水平”，因此必須著手重整本國財政；留給倫敦的時間則最多只有兩年。
(文章來源：FT中文網)
點評
①Soar，意為rise /increase swiftly or powerfully，“猛增”，與本句中的shrink形成對照，shrink意為decrease in size/scale/value，etc.“(規模或者價值等方面的)萎縮”
②AAA，top rating for bonds of the highest quality awarded by the main rating agencies：Standard & Poor‘s，Moody’s and Fitch IBCA.給予優質債券的最高評級。由標準普爾、穆迪和惠譽國際等主要評級機構評定。
③劃線部分為狀語前置引起的倒裝結構，正常語序應該為：A suggested answer-and a warning，comes from the economists who wrote the book on the impact of financial crises on public finances.
④economists其后緊接一個限制性定語從句，由于先行詞為人且作主語，所以引導詞用who.
⑤soothe，意為to relieve or assuage(pain or longing)，“減緩(疼痛、不安等)”，在此是減緩通脹引發的投資者的擔憂。
⑥off the hook本意為脫離掛鉤，hook在此寓意即為下一段中的danger mark，“警戒水平”。 |